SBI Q3 Analysis: Navigating Wage Costs With Continued Business Strength

Despite a one-time hit from higher wage costs, the State Bank of India (SBI) exhibited resilience in Q3 FY24, showcasing impressive asset quality, healthy loan growth, and a comfortable deposit position. Analysts remain optimistic about the bank’s future prospects, citing its strong fundamentals.

Profit Decline and Wage Impact:

Contents

1 Profit Decline and Wage Impact:
2 Looking Beyond the Numbers: Analyst Optimism:

SBI’s Q3 profit witnessed a 35.5% decline compared to the previous year, primarily due to a one-time exceptional charge of ₹7,100 crore. This charge stemmed from the bank’s agreement to a 17% wage hike for its employees, leading to increased pension and gratuity liabilities. These elevated costs might extend into Q4, with normalization anticipated only in FY25. However, this one-time impact shouldn’t overshadow the bank’s underlying strengths.

PARTICULARS	Q3FY24	YOY CHANGE	QOQ CHANGE
Net interest income	₹398.2 bn	4.6%	0.8%
Net interest margin	3.2%	(28bps)	(7bps)
Net Profit	₹91.6 bn	-35.5%	-36.1%
Net NPA	0.6%	(13bps)	0
Provision	₹6.9 bn	-88.1%	496.7
Advances	₹35,195 bn	15.1	5.2
Deposits	₹47,622 bn	13%	1.6%

India’s largest bank SBI

Source: Phillip Capital

Shining Light on Asset Quality:

While the profit decline might raise concerns, a closer look reveals positive aspects:

Reduced NPAs: SBI’s asset quality continued to improve, with the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio declining by 13 basis points (bps) to 2.42%. This positive trend is further reinforced by the flat net NPA ratio of 0.64%.
Sustained Recoveries and Write-offs: The bank’s consistent efforts in recoveries and write-offs contributed to the decrease in NPAs, demonstrating proactive management of its loan portfolio.
Decreased SMA: The restructured book and special mention accounts (SMA) 1/2 portfolio also witnessed a decline, indicating an overall improvement in loan health.

Looking Beyond the Numbers: Analyst Optimism:

Despite the profit decline, analysts remain optimistic about SBI’s future based on several key factors:

Healthy Loan Growth: Loan growth remained robust at 15% year-on-year (YoY), driven by strong performances in the retail, SME, agri, and corporate segments. This growth indicates continued credit demand and the bank’s ability to cater to diverse customer needs.
Deposit Comfort: Unlike some private banks facing deposit constraints, SBI enjoys a comfortable deposit position. This strong liquidity base provides headroom for future loan growth, positioning the bank favorably in the current market scenario.
Managed Margins: While net interest margins (NIMs) declined due to deposit repricing, the decrease was lower than expected. The bank’s management anticipates NIMs to stabilize at current levels, mitigating concerns about significant margin erosion.
Growth Opportunities: SBI identifies potential for further growth in several areas:
- Aatma Nirbhar Bharat Schemes: The bank sees an opportunity to support government initiatives aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and self-reliance.
- Renewable Energy Loans: The growing focus on sustainability presents an opportunity for SBI to expand its portfolio in the renewable energy sector.
- Agri Loan Focus: SBI’s launch of new products like the Agri Enterprise Loan and Kisan Samradhi demonstrates its commitment to expanding its agri loan portfolio and capturing a larger share of the market.

Analyst Commentary: A Nuanced Perspective:

Leading analysts offer valuable insights into SBI’s performance:

Kotak Institutional Equities

They acknowledge the one-time charge’s impact but emphasize the strength of SBI’s core business. They highlight the bank’s comfortable deposit situation and believe that many of the anticipated risks did not materialize significantly.

Antique Stock Broking

They commend SBI’s pristine asset quality and expect the favorable credit cost cycle to continue for some time, benefiting the bank’s profitability.

Axis Securities

While acknowledging the NIM decline, they point out that it was lower than expected and is projected to stabilize, alleviating concerns about a sustained margin squeeze.

Prabhudas Liladher

Based on SBI’s strong fundamentals and the tight system liquidity, they forecast a 13% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the bank over FY24-26.

Conclusion: A Strong Foundation for Future Growth

While the one-time wage cost impacted SBI’s Q3 profit, it’s crucial to recognize the bank’s underlying strengths. The continued improvement in asset quality, healthy loan growth, comfortable deposit position, and potential for growth in new areas paint a positive picture for SBI’s future.

As the bank navigates the impact of wage costs and adapts to evolving market conditions, its robust fundamentals and strategic initiatives position it well for sustainable growth in the years to come.

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